Bloggfrslur mnaarins, gst 2015

Hugleiingar varandi kaup hlutabrfum Haga og Sjv

g fjrfesti hlutabrfum Haga hf. sumar. Vali st mnum huga milli hlutabrfa ess flags og Sjv hf. San hefur gengi hlutabrfa Sjv hkkaum rmlega 20% en gengi hlutabrfa Haga aeins um rmlega 5%. Val mitt var samkvmt essu okkalegt en augljslega hefi g tt a veja hinn hestinn.

Flk spyr mig oft hvaa tti g einblni egar g fjrfesti hlutabrfum. Einn ttur tengist vallt viri eirra. Ef hlutabrf fyrirtkja eru ekki me duli viri, sem gti veri formi dulinna vaxtartkifra, hagnaar undirliggjandi eignum ea einfaldlega vermati sem vanmetur elilegan hagna fr rekstri (gerist oft egar a neikvar frttir eru rkjandi tengdum framtarhorfum fyrirtkja), er ekki sta til a fjrfesta brfunum. Hr a nean eru stutt dmi.

Sjv

stan fyrir v a g var a hugsa um a fjrfesta Sjv var a g taldi a flagi kmi til me a innleysa tluveran gengishagna vegna skuldabrfasafns flagsins. g taldi lklegt a vxtunarkrafa skuldabrfa kmi til me a lkka miki sumar framhaldi af frttum varandi afnmi gjaldeyrishafta. Sj umru hrna http://www.mbl.is/vidskipti/pistlar/marmixa/1787102/. Fyrirtki er auk ess vel reki og hefur skila hagnai af undirliggjandi rekstri undanfarin misseri. Hlutabrf flagsins virtust vera elilega verlg en var teki tillit til hugsanlega innleysts gengishagnaar?

Vi nnari athugun s g a rtt fyrir a vaxtastig lkki tluvert miki, sem g geri r fyrir eim tmapunkti, hefi a ekki umtalsver hrif skuldabrfasafn flagsins. Lftmi flestra brfa eigu flagsins er tiltlulega stuttur ea a mealtali rtt rmlega 3 r eftir fyrsta rsfjrung essa rs en var upphafi rs tplega 4 r (http://www.sjova.is/files/fjarfestar/2015_Afkoma_3M.pdf, sj blasu 9). ar sem a lengri lftmi skuldabrfa gerir au meira nm fyrir vaxtabreytingum mrkuum hefu nlegar lkkanir vxtunarkrfu skuldabrfa haft meiri hrif afkomu fyrirtkisins hefi meallftmi skuldabrfa safni Sjv veri lengri. Fram kom tilkynningu fr Sjv a vnt argreisla hefi auki eign flagsins innstum og lausafjrsjum. a var v erfitt a meta hversu mikil hrifin yru varandi meallftma skuldabrfasafnsins framhaldi af hu argreislunni (a reyndist vera 3,5 r samkvmt nlegu rshlutauppgjri).

Hugsanlega hef g engu a sur vanmeti hrifin v a eins og ur sagi hafa hlutabrf flagsins hkka tluvert miki san g fr gegnum essar plingar og missti g ar af gu kauptkifri. Auk ess, rtt fyrir a gera r fyrir skarpri vaxtalkkun mrkuum (ekki skammtmavexti Selabankans), geri g ekki r fyrir v a lkkun vaxtastigs markai yri jafn skjtt og raun bar vitni. v m vi bta a g keypti einnig rkisbrf (RB31) me langan lftma sama tma annig a segja m a g hafi teki beina frekar en beina stu eirri tr minni a vxtunarkrafa skuldabrfa kmi til me a lkka.

Hagar

g taldi a kaup Hgum vri litleg essum tmapunkti vegna nokkurra tta. Einn var s stareynd a hlutabrf flaginu hfu lkka um um a bil 15% (a teknu tilliti til argreislu) fr hstu hum vergildis eirra nokkrum mnuum ur. sta lkkunarinnar tti sr a kvenu leyti elilegar skringar. Samdrttur hagnai hafi nlega tt sr sta en g tel hann vera tmabundinn. Auk ess er ljst a tilkoma Costco kejunnar slenskan marka leii til aukinnar versamkepnni og minnki framleg Haga a einhverju leyti. Raunar hafi g selt brf mn Hgum ri 2014 egar a tilkynnt var a Costco kmi til landsins sem myndi draga r hagnai Haga. ar var g e.t.v. of brur mr v a reynslan Bandarkjunum hefur snt a verslanir eins og Target og Wal-Mart geta hglega keppt smu svum og Costco. a er neitanlega strt spurningarmerki a hvaa marki tilkoma Costco dragi r framleg Haga nstu rin.

a eru aftur mti nnur vaxtartkifri fyrir Haga. g taldi a hrif af afnmi hafta kmi til me a styrkja krnuna og a s verblga sem ttast var a fri skri vormnuum yri v minni. v kmi kostnaur innfluttra vara til me a lkka slenskum krnum tali og auka framleg Haga til skemmri tma (nleg 3% lkkun IKEA vrum snum snir a svart hvtu).

a eru hins vegar fjrir arir ttir sem g tel a komi til me a drfa hagna Haga fram nstu misseri.

  1. Afnm hafta og s inngreisla sem kemur rkissj nstu misseri kemur til me a lkka skatta og bta afkomu slendinga verulega miki. g tel lklegt a a komi til me a hafa verulega g hrif fyrir rekstur Haga, ar sem a slendingar fari a kaupa meira njan leik (vonandi ekki 2007 neyslu) sem tti a auka tekjur Haga.
  2. Anna atrii tengist fyrsta atriinu. Me bttari hag rkissjs myndast mguleikar til a afnema frekar tolla af vrum. Netverslun slendinga fatnai, auk kaupa erlendri grundu, hefur dregi mjg r slu fatnaar hrlendis. Afnm tolla gti gert fatakaup a hugaverari kosti hrlendis. Upphirnar eru ekki verulegar en ngjanlegar til a auka hagna fyrirtkisins.
  3. svipuum ntum og tv fyrrnefndu atriin er vaxtakostnaur slendinga a lkka (g fjalla nnar um a nstunni). Me minni vaxtakostna eykst rmi til neyslu (aftur, g vona a 2007 s ekki handan hornsins) og vonandi lka aukins sparnaar.
  4. Erlendir feramenn yrpast til slands essa daganna. Vera eirra hfuborgarsvinu takmarkast ekki lengur vi mib Reykjavkur heldur gista eir um gjrvalt Reykjavkursvi. a eru meira a segja keypis skutlur a keyra Kringluna svo eir geti versla meira. svo a flestir feramenn kaupi varning verslunum srsninum a rfum eirra kemur aukning feramannastraumsins til me a auka veltu Haga. Vxtur ferajnustunnar dregur einnig a miki vinnuafl til sn a aftur er vinnuafl fari a streyma til landsins, sem ir a viskiptavinum Haga fjlgar.

Ef samdrttur verur mikill heiminum, til dmis me hruni knversks hagkerfis eins og margir ttast essa daganna, dregst feramannastraumur saman. Kejuverkandi hrif ttu sr vntanlega sta og neysla slendinga kmi til me a dragast saman. Slkt myndi hjkvmilega draga r hagnai Haga. Hlutabrf fyrirtkisins gtu hglega hkka um 20% mnum huga en ekki miki meira en a nstu mnui. A sama skapi er lkkun brfum flagsins lkleg gangi ofangreindar bjartsnar forsendur ekki eftir. Fyrirtki er a stndugum rekstri a g tel lkur miklu verfalli hlutabrfum fyrirtkisins lklegar. M essu sambandi benda a hlutabrf Wal-Mart og Target hafa sveiflast lti veri sustu rin Bandarkjunum en hlutabrf Costco hafa aftur mti meira en tvfaldast viri sustu 5 r. Gmlu verlunarkejunnar halda velli en Costco er stkkandi fyrirtki, en ltill vxtur er reiknaur viri gmlu risanna en llu meiri hj Costco.

MWM

Rtt er a taka fram a ofangreint er ekki fjrfestingarrgjf. Gengi hlutabrfa getur lkka og geta au jafnvel ori verlaus. a vi um gengi ofangreindra flaga lka. Gengi skuldabrfa sveiflast lka og geta au einnig ori verlaus. Aldrei setja ll fjrfestingaregg n smu krfuna.

English version

Reflections on Investing in Haga and Sjv Shares

I invested in Hagar shares this summer. The choice was in my mind between the shares of that company and Sjv. Since then, the stock price Sjv has risen more than 20% but the stock Haga "only" just over 5%. My choice was according to this reasonable but obviously I should have bet on the other horse.

People often ask me what aspects I focus on when I invest in equities. One factor always relates to their value. If the shares of companies do not have a hidden value, which could be in the form of latent growth opportunities, profits in the underlying assets or simply that the market price assessment underestimates reasonable future profits from operations (often happens when negative news dominate related prospects of companies), then there is no reason to invest in the shares. Below are brief examples.

Sjv

The reason why I was thinking about investing in Sjv was that I thought the company would redeem substantial trading gains in its bond portfolio. I considered it likely that bond yields would decline sharply in the summer in the wake of the news regarding the lifting of capital controls. The company is also well run and has generated profits from continuing operations in the recent past. Shares of the company appeared to be reasonably priced but did the pricing take into consideration the potential realized gains?

On closer examination, I saw that despite the fact that interest rates will fall quite a lot, which I assumed at that point, it would not have a significant impact on its bond portfolio. The duration (Macauley, i.e. the weighted average lifespan) of most bonds owned by the company is relatively short or an average of slightly more than 3 years after the first quarter of this year than at the beginning of almost 4 years (http://www.sjova.is/files/fjarfestar/2015_Afkoma_3M.pdf, see page 9). Because bonds with long duration makes them more sensitive to interest rate changes in the markets, the recent decline in bond yields would have had a greater impact on the performance of the company had an average maturity of bonds in the Sjv portfolio been longer. It was revealed in a statement from Sjv the expected dividend had increased investments in cash. It was difficult to assess the extent of the impact would be for the lifetime of the bond portfolio following the massive dividend payment.

I have possibly, nevertheless, underestimated the effect, as previously said the company's shares have risen quite a lot since I went through these thoughts and a good buying opportunity passed me by. In addition, I did not expect the reduction of interest rates in the market would be as quick as it did, despite expecting interest rates falling a great deal. It can be added that I also bought bonds with long maturities so it could be said that I have took a direct rather than indirect exposure in the belief that bond yields would drop.

Hagar

I felt that Hagar shares was a promising investment at this point due to several factors. One was the fact that the company's shares had fallen by about 15% (taking into account dividends) from a peak value of a few months before. This decrease can to some extent be explained. The decline in profits had recently taken place, but I believe it to be temporary. Moreover, it is clear that the introduction of the Costco chain in the Icelandic market will increase price competition and reduce Hagar margins to some extent. I had actually sold my shares in Hagar when it was initially announced that Costco was entering the market. The experience in the US have shown that stores like Target and Wal-Mart can easily compete in the same areas and Costco. However, it is undeniably a big question to what extent the emergence Costco reduces Hagars margin in the coming years.

There are, however, other growth opportunities for Hagar. I thought that the impact of liberalization would tend to strengthen the currency and the inflation fear in the spring thus in the upper range. The strengthening of the currency would lower the cost of imports increase Hagars margins short term (recent 3% decrease of IKEA is a clear example).

There are, however, four other factors that I think are expected to drive Hagars profits continuation in coming seasons.

  1. Removal of currency restrictions and a payment the Treasury expects receiving in the near term is going to reduce taxes and improve performance Icelanders well-being significantly. I think believe this will have a significant positive effect on the operations of Hagar, with Icelanders consuming more again (hopefully not 2007 consumption), which should increase Hagars revenue.
  2. The second relates to the first item. With the Treasury having more income it has increased options to abolish further customs duties on products. Icelanders have increasingly shopped their clothing and other products abroad, often via the Internet. The reduction in tariffs could make such shopping more of a viable choice within Icelandic shores.
  3. In a similar vein as the two aforementioned items is that interest rates in Iceland are falling (I shall discuss that in the near future). With lower interest expenses, there is more opportunities to increase consumption (again, I hope that 2007 is not around the corner) and then hopefully also increase savings.
  4. Foreign tourists flock to Iceland these days. Their stays are no longer limited to the center of Reykjavik but of the whole Reykjavik area. There are even free shuttles to drive them to the mall so they can shop more. Although most tourists buy goods in stores adapted towards their needs, the increase in tourism is bound to increase the turnover of Hagar. The growth of tourism also draws an added labor force that has begun flowing into the country, which means that the numbers of Hagars customers increases.

If the recession occurs world-wide, for example, the collapse of the Chinese economy as many fear these days, tourism will decrease. This would inevitably reduce Hagars profits. The company's stock could easily increase by 20% in my mind but not much more than that over the coming months. Similarly, the decline in the company's stock are likely if the above optimistic assumptions do not pan out. The company is in it a sound business, I thus believe the probability of large price drop in shares of the company unlikely. In this context it may be pointed out that shares in Wal-Mart and Target have fluctuated little in price in recent years in the US stock market while shares in Costco have in turn more than doubled in value over the past 5 years. The old retail chains thus stand their ground but Costco is a growing entity, but while little growth is priced in the old retail chains, moderate growth is priced in the Costco shares.

MWM

This writing is not an investment advice. Stock prices can go down and stocks can even become worthless. That applies to the stocks mentioned in this article. Bonds prices also fluctuate and can also become worthless. Never put all of you investment eggs in the same basket.


Knversk bla

g hitti knverskan hagfring ri 2011 framhaldi af fyrirlestri sem g hlt New Jersey varandi slenska hruni. Hann sagi a afar margt sem fram kom fyrirlestri mnum svipai til standsins Kna um r mundir. Fasteignabla var egar farin a myndast og var hn jafnvel sprungin. Hans helstu hyggjur voru a hagvxturinn sem rkti, og hafi gert mrg r, dyggi til a blsa enn frekar verblu sem var a myndast ar og a slkt kmi til me a breiast yfir arar afurir fjrmlamarkaa.

hyggjur hans hafa komi daginn. Langt er san a ljst var a fasteignabla hefi raun myndast og einnig sprungi. Engu a sur hldu knversk hlutabrf a hkka viri. essi run svipar til ess egar a fasteignabla sprakk Bandarkjunum ri 1925 en nokkrum rum sar hkkuu hlutabrf miki ur en hinn mikli skellur kom. Hkkunin knverskum hlutabrfum lktist meira eirri hkkun sem tti sr sta tknifyrirtkjum skr NASDAQ vsitlunni rin 1998-2000 (byrjun rs 2000). Svona leit NASDAQ hlutabrfavsitalan t fr lok aprl 1999 til sama tma rsins 2000 (heimild: Google Finance).

NASDAQ 1999-2000

Gengi knversku hlutabrfavsitlunnar hefur hkka me svipuum htti sustu 12 mnui eins og sst hr a nean (heimild: Bloomberg.com).

Kna 2015

v hefur lengi veri sp a vxtur efnahagsins Kna komi til me a dragast saman. a er ekki ar me sagt a samdrttur vri nausynlega spilunum, einfaldlega minni vxtur. etta virist kveinn hluti almennings Kna ekki hafa veri mevitaur um. Sgild einkenni hlutabrfabla er uppspretta af miklum hagvexti mrg r og rtt fyrir a httumerki su til staar fer almenningur a tra v a hagvxturinn veri endanlegur. Auki agengi flks Kna a fjrmagni leitai san hlutabrfamarkainn ar sem a hkkun hlutabrfa veitti tlmynd a au vri g fjrfesting (oft er innsta fyrir hkkun hlutabrfa) og almenningur ar fr a fjrfesta brfum einungis af v a v a vinir og vandamenn hfu gert slkt hi sama og hagnast miki. Skuldsetning almennings ar er sgulegum hum og hefur aukist grarlega hratt eins og essi frtt dregur vel saman. Eins og knverski hagfringurinn sagi fyrir nokkrum rum san, margt svipar til standins Kna sastliin r (og fallsins essa daganna) og slandi 2003-2008.

MWM

Hr er hlekkur af frtt RV sem birtist morgun varandi etta efni. a var nkvmt hj mr a segja a frekari lkkanir vru lklegar, betra hefi veri a segja a r kmu mr ekki vart.


Selja Landsbankann og hugsanlegar hfustvar leiinni

Tluverur umbosvandi virist rkja varandi Landsbankann essa daganna. Bankinn vill byggja hfustvar mibnum sem fyrirs er a veri drar byggingu. Stjrnendateymi bankans telur a s kostnaur fist til baka egar a til lengra tma er liti.

Rki er langstrsti hluthafi bankans. Engu a sur hafa talsmenn helstu ramanna landsins opinberlega lst yfir efasemdum slkum formum. eim hpi eru alingismenn sem n mynda meirihluta rkisstjrnarinnar og jafnvel leia hana. Maur skyldi tla a eir ru hva bankinn gerir og gerir ekki.

a er einfalt a leysa etta ml. Rki tti a selja bankann. Umra hefur veri a fara svoklluu norsku leiina eim efnum, sem felst v a rki selji 60% hlut og tti eftir 40%. annig ru fl sem hefu hagsmuni bankans fyrirrmi hva arsemi varar. Aftur mti tti rki fram hlut bankanum annig a a hefi kvei neitunarvald s bankinn a frast braut ar sem a samflagsleg gildi vru hvergi lengur sjanleg.

Me essu myndi stjrn bankans, skipu aallega af einstaklingum umboi strstu eigenda bankans (a rkinu undanskildu), taka kvrun um a hvort a n bygging tti a rsa mibnum, rum sta ea hvort nausynlegt s yfir hfu a byggja nja byggingu. Vri niurstaan s a byggingin vri fjrhagslega hentug myndu eigendur bankans samykkja a og hlutur rkisins slkri byggingu yri "einungis" 40%.

essi hugmynd er ekki n af nlinni. Fjallai g til a mynda um hana varandi slu HS Orku fyrir nokkrum rum san og einnig fjallai fjrmlarherra um etta vor.

Eigi f bankans var rmlega 230 milljara krna upphafi 2. rsfjrungs essu ri. Mia vi elilegan hagna vri a komi a minnsta 250 milljara krna veri 60% hlutur bankans seldur nstu 12-18 mnuum. Hagnaur Landsbankans seinasta ri var 30 milljara krna eftir skatta. Mia vi margfaldarann 1,2 eigi f bankans yri markasviri hans rflega 300 milljara krna. S hagnaur rsins 2014 margfaldaur me 12 vri markasviri 360 milljara krna. Me v a selja 60% hlut bankanum fengi rki samkvmt ofangreindum forsendum kringum 200 milljara krna sinn hlut en tti eftir sem ur 40% hlut bankanum.

MWM


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