Vextir húsnćđislána lćkka (Like)

Ég skrifađi opiđ bréf til stjórnar LSR haustiđ 2012 ţar sem ég kvartađi yfir ţví ađ sjóđurinn lćkkađi ekki breytilega vexti á húsnćđislánum í samrćmi viđ yfirlýsingar sjóđsins á heimasíđu sinni árum áđur. Voru vextirnir á ţeim tímapunkti of háir miđađ viđ ţá yfirlýstu stefnu ađ vaxtaálag breytilegra verđtryggđra vaxta sjóđsins yrđi međalávöxtunarkrafa Íbúđabréfa ađ viđbćttu 50-75 punkta (0,5% - 0,75%) álagi. 

Nú er öldin önnur. LSR uppfćrir reglulega vaxtaskrá sína međ afar gegnsćjum hćtti. Á heimasíđu sjóđsins stendur: 

Breytilegir vextir sjóđfélagalána eru reiknađir einum mánuđi fyrir gildistöku nýrra vaxta og eru međaltal ávöxtunarkröfu skuldabréfaflokks Íbúđalánasjóđs HFF150644 í viđskiptakerfi Kauphallar Íslands síđustu ţrjá mánuđina á undan ađ viđbćttu 0,60% álagi. 

Nú uppfćrir LSR fjórum sinnum á ári breytilega vexti sjóđfélagalána. Ţeir vextir hafa veriđ ađ lćkka. Ţeir lćkka frá og međ 1. október úr 3,34% niđur í 3,20%. Í dag er vaxtastig HFF 44 Íbúđabréfa á markađi í kringum 2,45%. Haldist sú ávöxtunarkrafa og álag LSR óbreytt nćstu ţrjá mánuđi, lćkkar raunvaxtakostnađur sjóđfélaga međ breytilega vexti niđur í 3,05% í upphafi nćsta árs. 

Ávöxtunarkrafa Íbúđabréfa hefur reyndar aldrei veriđ jafn lág og hún er í dag. Haldist hún á sömu slóđum nćstu mánuđi mun vaxtakostnađur landsmanna vegna húsnćđislána vera í sögulegu lágmarki sé litiđ til ţess sem mesta máli skiptir, raunvaxta. Ţar sem verđbólga er einnig (enn) afar lág ţá er vaxtakostnađur hvernig sem á máliđ er litiđ fyrir fólk međ breytilega verđtryggđa vexti einnig í sögulegu lágmarki. Ég set stórt "Like" á ţađ.

Áhrif á greiđslubyrđi

Ţetta getur haft veruleg áhrif á ráđstöfunartekjur heimila. Lćkki vextir úr 3,34% niđur í 3,05% ţarf sjóđfélagi međ 30 milljón króna lán ađ greiđa rúmlega 7 ţúsund krónum minna í vaxtakostnađ hvern mánuđ, eđa sem nemur 87 ţúsund krónum á ári.

Sé litiđ til sögulegs vaxtastigs fer ţessi tala ađ skipta enn meira máli. Lćkkun vaxta á húsnćđislánum haustiđ 2004 niđur í 4,15% var talin hafa mikil áhrif á hćkkun fasteignaverđs á sínum tíma, en útlánsvextir höfđu skömmu áđur veriđ tćplega prósentu hćrri. Í dag ţćttu slík vaxtakjör frekar slök. Sé boriđ saman viđ ţá ađila sem skulda 30 milljónir króna međ 4,15% raunvöxtum og ţeirra sem skulda sambćrilega upphćđ međ 3,20% vöxtum hjá LSR (sem lćkka enn frekar nćstu áramót miđađ viđ núverandi ávöxtunarkröfu) ţá er árleg greiđslubyrđi ţeirra sem eru međ óhagstćđari vaxtakjör (4,15%), 285 ţúsund krónum hćrri. Mismunurinn hćkkar í 330 ţúsund krónur lćkki breytilegir vextir hjá LSR niđur í 3,05% um nćstu áramót. 

Áhrif á húsnćđisverđ

Vaxtastig hefur mikil áhrif á húsnćđisverđ. Lćkki vaxtastig ţá hćkkar almennt verđ fasteigna, en lćkkar hćkki vaxtastig. Ţar sem lćkkun langtímavaxta virđist vera orđin varanleg má fćra rök fyrir ţví ađ hćkkun fasteignaverđs megi ađ hluta til rekja til lćkkun vaxtastigs húsnćđislána. 

MWM

 

ps. Hćgt er ađ velta fyrir sér forsendum varđandi húsnćđislán í Excel skjali sem mögulegt er ađ hlađa niđur hérna:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/dgk9xcvl62sp218/lanareiknir%2Bverdtryggd%2Boverdtryggd%2Bsamanburdur%2Bog%2Braungreidslur%2B2015%2B09%2B08%2BMar%2BWolfgang%2BMixa.xlsx?dl=0

English version

I wrote an open letter to the Board of LSR in 2012 where I complained that the fund did not lower its variable interest rates on mortgages according to the statements on its website in the past. Interest rates at that point were too high compared to the stated policy of having the premia being variable indexed interest rates in the market plus 50-75 basis points (0.5% - 0.75%) strain.

This has now changed. LSR regularly updates its interest rates in a very transparent manner. The Fund's website states:

Variable interest rate loans to members are calculated one month before the commencement of new interest and average yield bond HFF HFF150644 in the ICEX trading system over the three preceding months plus a 0.60% margin.

Now LSR updates four times a year its variable rate loans to its members. Those rates have been falling. They decreased 1 October from 3.34% to 3.20%. Today, interest rates on HFF 44 HFF market is around 2.45%. If the rate and additional LSR premia of 0,60% remain unchanged for the next three months, real interest expenses for fund members with a variable interest rate will fall down to 3.05% at the beginning of next year.

The bond yield of housing bonds has actually never been as low as it is today. Were it to remain in the same area next months, mortgage rates for the population will be at historical lows. I put a huge "like" on that.

The Impact of Debt

This can have a significant impact on households´ disposable income. Falling interest rates from 3.34% to 3.05% requires a person owning 30 million ISK to pay over seven thousand ISK less in interest expense each month, amounting to 87 thousand ISK a year.

Considering historical interest rates makes this figure even more important. The decline in mortgage interest rates in fall 2004 down to 4.15% was considered to have a major impact on real estate prices during that time, but lending rates earlier had been nearly a percentage point higher. Today such terms would be considered being rather poor. Comparing parties that owe 30 million with a 4.15% real interest rates and the debt equivalent with a 3.20% interest in LSR (which fall further next year, given the current yield), the annual interest rate burden for those with with less favorable terms (4.15%) is 285 thousand ISK higher. The difference increases to 330 thousand ISK lower interest rate if LSR interest rates fall down 3.05% at the beginning of next year.

The Impact on Housing Prices

Interest rates have a major impact on housing prices. Falling interest rates will raise the general price of real estate, but lowers the price should interest rates rise. Since the long-term decline appears to be become permanent it can be argued that the rise in property prices may be partly attributed to the reduction of mortgage interest rates.

MWM

 


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